Solar PPA vs Buy Calculator 2026 — 25-Year Comparison
Compare a solar PPA vs buying in 2026: 25-year payments, net savings and payback, with no homeowner tax credit after 2025 and optional rebates included.
Estimate scope & data quality
- SEO Quick Estimate Uses the inputs available in this calculator.
- Personalized Estimate Use your own bill and location information where this calculator supports it.
- Detailed Solar Economics NOT_COMPUTABLE here without a verified tariff, system design, quote, and eligibility record.
- Data quality
- NOT_AVAILABLE
- Result limitation
- Calculator output is not a source-complete customer result.
A tariff credit is distinct from annual savings. If a result is NOT_COMPUTABLE or CONFLICT, it must not be replaced with an estimate or treated as canonical.
How to use this calculator
- Enter the installed price quoted for buying the system (this site uses a blended $3.00/W, so an 8 kW system is roughly $24,000). No federal credit is subtracted for 2026 installs.
- Enter any state or utility rebates you would receive as the buyer (default $0).
- Enter the PPA rate ($ per kWh you would pay the solar company) and its annual escalator from the contract (often 0–3% per year).
- Enter your current electricity rate, the expected annual utility rate increase (default 3%) and the system's expected annual production.
- Compare 25-year net savings for buying vs the PPA, total PPA payments, and which option comes out ahead.
Understanding your results
How the comparison works: Both options are measured against staying on the utility. Buying: 25-year net savings = Σ(annual kWh × utility rate in that year) − (installed price − rebates). A PPA: 25-year net savings = Σ(annual kWh × (utility rate − PPA rate) in that year), with $0 upfront. Production degrades 0.5% per year and the utility rate rises by your escalation input (3% by default). Example with the defaults — $24,000 system (8 kW), 10,775 kWh/yr, 18.19¢/kWh utility rate (US average, EIA, July 2026 year-to-date), 12¢ PPA with a 2.9% escalator: buying nets about $42,900 over 25 years (simple payback ≈ 12.2 years), while the PPA nets about $23,300 after roughly $43,500 of PPA payments. This comparison values every kWh at the full utility rate; under net billing, exported kWh are worth less for both options.
What changed in 2026: Until Dec 31, 2025, homeowners who bought solar could claim 30% of the cost under the §25D Residential Clean Energy Credit. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21, signed July 4, 2025) ended §25D for systems installed after Dec 31, 2025 (IRS FAQ). A 2026 purchase therefore carries no federal credit, which lengthens payback for buyers. This is not tax advice; confirm with a tax professional.
Why PPAs look relatively better in 2026: A PPA provider owns the system, so it is a business that may still claim the §48E clean electricity investment credit for solar that begins construction by Jul 4, 2026, or is placed in service by Dec 31, 2027 (foreign-entity-of-concern rules apply). Some of that value may show up as a lower PPA rate or escalator, but no specific discount is guaranteed — compare the actual per-kWh price against your utility rate.
When buying still wins: If you can pay cash or borrow cheaply, and your utility rate and net-metering rules are favorable, owning usually produces larger 25-year savings because you keep every kWh of value once the system is paid off. A high PPA escalator (close to or above the utility’s rate growth) erodes PPA savings over time.
When a PPA makes sense: Zero upfront cost and no maintenance responsibility suit homeowners who lack cash or loan access, expect to move, or prefer predictable per-kWh pricing. Read the contract for the escalator, production guarantee, buyout terms and transfer rules before signing. Rate data: EIA; production estimates: NREL PVWatts.
Frequently asked questions
Direct answers for US homeowners.
Related guides
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