Solar Lease vs Buy Calculator 2026: 25-Year Comparison
Compare leasing vs buying solar in 2026 over 25 years. Enter your lease payment, escalator and purchase price to see net savings for each option.
Estimate scope & data quality
- SEO Quick Estimate Uses the inputs available in this calculator.
- Personalized Estimate Use your own bill and location information where this calculator supports it.
- Detailed Solar Economics NOT_COMPUTABLE here without a verified tariff, system design, quote, and eligibility record.
- Data quality
- NOT_AVAILABLE
- Result limitation
- Calculator output is not a source-complete customer result.
A tariff credit is distinct from annual savings. If a result is NOT_COMPUTABLE or CONFLICT, it must not be replaced with an estimate or treated as canonical.
How to use this calculator
- Enter the system's expected annual production (kWh) from your quote or NREL PVWatts.
- Enter the monthly lease payment and the annual escalator from your lease quote.
- Enter the cash purchase price for the same system and any state or utility rebate (no federal credit applies to 2026 purchases).
- Enter your electricity rate and pick your net-metering situation (0.75 is the US blended average).
- Compare 25-year net savings for buying and leasing, plus the buy payback period.
Understanding your results
Short answer: In 2026, buying an 8 kW system producing about 10,775 kWh/yr ($24,000 at $3.00/W) at 18.19¢/kWh (EIA, July 2026 year-to-date) with a 0.75 bill offset saves about $1,470 in year 1 and about $26,100 net over 25 years, with a 16.3-year simple payback. An $85/month lease with a 2.9% escalator nets about $13,400 over the same period; with no escalator it nets about $24,600.
How the calculator works: Year-1 bill savings = annual production × electricity rate × bill offset. Bill savings grow 3% a year with rates and shrink 0.5% a year with panel degradation. Buy net savings = 25 years of bill savings − (purchase price − rebates). Lease net savings = the same bill savings − 25 years of lease payments, rising by the escalator each year. Your quote’s lease term may be 20 years; the 25-year horizon keeps both options on the same footing.
Buying in 2026 (cash or loan): You own the system and keep all of the bill savings, but there is no federal credit. The 30% residential credit (§25D) ended for systems installed after Dec 31, 2025, under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21, signed July 4, 2025). Until then, buyers could subtract 30% of the cost; a 2026 buyer pays the full installed price, less any state or utility rebate.
Leasing or PPA in 2026: The solar company owns the panels and can still claim the business credit (§48E) for systems that begin construction by Jul 4, 2026, or are placed in service by Dec 31, 2027 (FEOC restrictions apply). Some of that value may show up in a lower lease price, but nothing guarantees a discount, so compare the actual quote. You never claim §48E yourself.
The escalator is the key number: A 2.9% escalator raises an $85 payment to about $169 by year 25, and total payments reach about $36,700 instead of $25,500 with a flat payment. If electricity rates rise more slowly than the escalator, the lease can end up costing more than it saves.
When leasing can still make sense: If you cannot pay cash or qualify for a reasonable loan, if the lease price is low and flat, or if the lessor handles maintenance and monitoring you value. Leases can complicate a home sale because the buyer must assume the contract or you must buy it out. Sources: IRS OBBB FAQs (policy); EIA (rates); NREL PVWatts (production). This is not tax advice; confirm with a tax professional.
Frequently asked questions
Direct answers for US homeowners.
Related guides
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